Foolish-Draw
0xe8a75539bbb9041cd7b354eba400069cd8fc46c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$249.09
Total PnL
$128.73
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
65%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
97 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$97.01
$13.58
- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
100 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.10
$2.10
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
40 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$34.90
$0.61
- NO
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
36 shares @ 87.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.08
$-5.65
- NO
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?
995 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-133.69
- YES
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?
973 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.42
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
351 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-11.01
- YES
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?
336 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-39.86
- YES
Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?
227 shares @ 88.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-201.67
- NO
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
227 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-12.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 5 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$10.44Feb 12, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$16.53Feb 12, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$25.23Feb 12, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$34.80Feb 12, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?$12.76Feb 12, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?$1.33Feb 12, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?$53.79Feb 12, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?$106.80Feb 11, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$4.60Feb 11, 18:31 UTC
- REWARD$1.19Feb 11, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$25.13Feb 10, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?$2.59Feb 10, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? $146.34Feb 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$25.50Feb 10, 00:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 10, 00:34 UTC
- REWARD$2.49Feb 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLEpstein client list released by June 30?$28.53Feb 9, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates$28.62Feb 9, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$4.80Feb 9, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026?$8.38Feb 9, 16:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
34 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $36.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 16:24 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 18:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.