Clean-Repeat
0xe9ce222d479d488f8901a342ecb778eb9cbd711f
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$304.28
Total PnL
$58.27
Realised
$71.93
Win rate
50%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
110 shares @ 80.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.99
$0.67
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
39 shares @ 76.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$27.19
$-2.36
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
59 shares @ 72.8¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.07
$-16.24
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
16 shares @ 62.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$14.20
$4.30
- NO
Trump goes to space in 2026?
14 shares @ 97.3¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.02
$0.15
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 44.5¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.55
$-3.42
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
14 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.05
$0.07
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
17 shares @ 30.4¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.25
$4.09
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
60 shares @ 12.2¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.11
$0.75
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.30
$0.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$0.61Aug 7, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$0.40Aug 7, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$2.15Aug 7, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$1.40Aug 7, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$1.41Aug 7, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.02Aug 7, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.07Aug 7, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.00Aug 7, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$6.37Aug 7, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$2.25Aug 7, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.01Aug 7, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.00Aug 7, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$1.47Aug 7, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$44.63Aug 7, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$0.04Aug 6, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?$5.11Aug 6, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?$5.01Aug 6, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?$2.56Aug 6, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.27Aug 6, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$2.10Aug 6, 19:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 14:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 02:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.