0xecd1b1489370b50359df68e126fff0618d4c4c52
0xecd1b1489370b50359df68e126fff0618d4c4c52
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$666.28
Total PnL
$-44.86
Realised
$38.83
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
327 shares @ 61.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$292.78
$92.78
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
86 shares @ 77.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$82.15
$15.49
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
70 shares @ 71.0¢·now 93.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$66.13
$16.13
- YES
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
64 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$64.07
$14.07
- NO
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
64 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$60.58
$10.58
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
60 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$60.24
$10.24
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
102 shares @ 49.2¢·now 25.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.51
$-24.49
- NO
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
85 shares @ 59.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.83
$-35.17
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
196 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
67 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$50.00Jun 18, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$50.00Jun 18, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$96.15Jun 18, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by July 31, 2026?$50.82Jun 12, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$50.00Jun 12, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$87.72Jun 12, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$50.00Jun 10, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$50.00Jun 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$51.51Jun 10, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$62.27Jun 10, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$50.00Jun 3, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$41.55Jun 3, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$0.00Jun 3, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$16.66Jun 2, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$16.66Jun 2, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$16.66Jun 2, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 2, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$0.00Jun 2, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?$0.00Jun 2, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?$0.00Jun 2, 16:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $49.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 16:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 02:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.