Frivolous-Charm
0xed19489cfbf7e0002147a2556e956d8ac909cb5e
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$6.8K
Total PnL
$252.44
Realised
$66.17
Win rate
42%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
858 shares @ 65.9¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$665.14
$99.42
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
480 shares @ 81.9¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$405.65
$12.33
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
401 shares @ 58.4¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.40
$60.54
- NO
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?
262 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$239.94
$-1.31
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
381 shares @ 57.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$223.18
$5.72
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
400 shares @ 54.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$217.75
$1.99
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
210 shares @ 86.6¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$202.87
$20.67
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
303 shares @ 65.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$180.33
$-16.64
- NO
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
205 shares @ 82.8¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$171.39
$1.38
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
246 shares @ 84.2¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$171.22
$-36.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$74.34Jul 13, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$96.34Jul 13, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$85.20Jul 13, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$10.40Jul 13, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 13, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$15.20Jul 13, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$11.20Jul 13, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.97Jul 13, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$22.50Jul 13, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.19Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$4.72Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.85Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.85Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.85Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.85Jul 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$89.60Jul 13, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$11.66Jul 13, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$8.49Jul 13, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$3.40Jul 13, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$5.40Jul 13, 14:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 66 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
66 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $16.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 09:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 15:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.