Unfolded-Volatility
0xee0839bebd1b7d5bfad12c28453b64b2405aa032
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$28.57
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-96.56
Win rate
9%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
45 shares @ 52.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$28.57
$5.17
- KRÜ BLAZE
Valorant: MIBR Female vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3)
220 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-88.00
- LOS ANGELES THIEVES
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5)
220 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-121.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
210 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.80
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-158.00
- SPURS
Spurs vs. Nuggets
200 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-108.85
- UTAH
Utah vs. Ducks
160 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-83.20
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
135 shares @ 52.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-70.47
- SPURS
Knicks vs. Spurs
105 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-68.25
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
98 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.66
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Inter Miami CF win on 2026-08-08?$130.00Aug 9, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami CF win on 2026-08-08?$54.60Aug 8, 04:03 UTC
- REDEEMLamine Yamal: 1+ goals$20.00Jul 2, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals$11.88Jul 1, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ goals$12.54Jul 1, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?$27.67Jul 1, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$30.00Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$50.00Jun 25, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$100.00Jun 24, 19:45 UTC
- REDEEMNetherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score$60.00Jun 14, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score$32.25Jun 14, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$68.97May 31, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMKnicks vs. Cavaliers$11.11May 24, 03:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-23?$7.81May 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$5.08May 23, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-23?$5.05May 23, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$71.82May 23, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$57.98May 23, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMCavaliers vs. Knicks$95.00May 20, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$47.08May 19, 03:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $38.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 04:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.