Advanced-Incentive
0xf7d132c9aa541ae09c74357e160fa05ff064f3cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
51
Open notional
$5.11
Total PnL
$-61.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.06
$2.06
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.16
$-0.84
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 10, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$1.04May 14, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?$1.19May 14, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?$1.04May 14, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?$1.04May 14, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$1.04May 14, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$1.05May 14, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05May 14, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$1.04May 14, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce new sanctions on China?$1.04May 14, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$1.03May 13, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026?$1.00May 12, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?$1.00May 12, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?$1.05May 12, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?$1.05May 12, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 122.5 billion views by May 31?$1.05May 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 123 billion views by May 31?$1.05May 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 488 million subscribers by June 30?$1.05May 12, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$1.05May 12, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30?$1.05May 10, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?$1.00May 10, 04:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 06:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 18:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.