0xfac0cba410d5d2bda360b74b8cbf51241ff7fdd8
0xfac0cba410d5d2bda360b74b8cbf51241ff7fdd8
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$544.26
Total PnL
$-65.05
Realised
$-21.05
Win rate
42%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
110 shares @ 35.8¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$47.25
$7.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
52 shares @ 71.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.89
$2.66
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 77.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.02
$5.03
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
234 shares @ 11.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.26
$-4.41
- NO
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
33 shares @ 28.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.83
$10.48
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
24 shares @ 49.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.67
$6.13
- YES
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
158 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.38
$-1.58
- YES
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?
87 shares @ 25.9¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.44
$-5.98
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
38 shares @ 39.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.70
$-2.07
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
11 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$10.93
$1.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?$1.04Jul 12, 18:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $199.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.