UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Open Detail and read the resolution source before acting
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
38% 10.0pp
24h volume
$421.0K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-50% 7D range-50.0pp net move
68%51%34%17%0%
0%
May 260%-50.0pp from start
May 23May 24May 24May 25May 25May 25May 26May 26
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 85/97 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 88/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 82/85 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 85/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? probability down 10.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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