High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 19h — verify the source
Verify
2MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Momentum observation
Momentum
4Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Divergence observation
Divergence
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
6% 7.0pp
24h volume
$1.3M
Orrery Pulse100% current14-100% 7D range+77.5pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
100%
Jun 1100%+77.5pp from start
May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31Jun 1
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
3Open
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
24h Δ -14.0pp · 1h Δ 1.0pp
4Open
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
24h Δ 13.0pp · 1h Δ -1.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch 32 active risks in one mode
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosUMA PENDING
High
High
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesUMA PENDING
High
High
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandUMA PENDING
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
High
Will United States win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesUMA PENDING
High
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 85/96 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 75/92 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 69 | 51/83 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 68 | 50/81 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? probability down 14.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 85% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? resolves in 19h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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