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MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?MIXED EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
30% 8.0pp
24h volume
$284.8K
Orrery Pulse48% current37-50% 7D range-2.5pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
48%
May 1848%-2.5pp from start
May 17May 17May 17May 17May 17May 17May 17May 18
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch 32 active risks in one mode
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
High
San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsUMA PENDING
High
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsUMA PENDING
High
High
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?UMA DISPUTED
High
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesUMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles AngelsUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?UMA PENDING
High
High
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsUMA PENDING
High
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5UMA PENDING
High
High
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
High
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 50/82 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 68 | 50/81 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 18, 2026
Read full brief - Iran closes its airspace by May 24? probability up 8.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24? shows a divergence pattern at 50% evidence — verify on the market.
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026? resolves in 36h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (2)
RISK INCREASED (1)
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