High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
3 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Momentum observation
Momentum
3Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 20h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Divergence observation
Divergence
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Top read
24h Δ -14.5pp, 1h Δ -0.5pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
3Open
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
24h Δ 14.0pp · 1h Δ -1.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch 32 active risks in one mode
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosUMA PENDING
High
High
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesUMA PENDING
High
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandUMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesUMA PENDING
High
Will United States win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 81/96 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 95/82 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 68 | 50/79 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? probability down 14.5pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? resolves in 20h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.