Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Momentum observation
Momentum
4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
64% 38.4pp
24h volume
$803.7K
Orrery Pulse1% current1-63% 7D range-49.4pp net move
84%63%42%21%0%
1%
May 311%-49.4pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 31May 31
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Top read
24h Δ 38.4pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 2.5× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -16.0pp, 1h Δ -0.9pp · Turnover 4.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
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New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5PAST EVENT
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New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 95/92 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 82/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 64/81 88/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 71 | 52/87 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 70 | 51/86 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 38.4pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? resolves in 23h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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