High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo
Momentum observation
Momentum
3US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 31h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 4.0pp
24h volume
$1.7M
Orrery Pulse5% current5-50% 7D range-8.0pp net move
62%46%31%15%0%
5%
Jun 15%-8.0pp from start
May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31Jun 1
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro TabiloTop read
24h Δ 34.0pp, 1h Δ 21.0pp · Turnover 6.5× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?UMA PENDING
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 74/95 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 64/95 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 63/94 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 61/85 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo probability up 34.0pp on $1.1M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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