MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
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TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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4Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Top read
24h Δ -5.0pp · 1h Δ 10.5pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?UMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 79 | 72/88 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 78 | 68/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 76 | 63/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 62/86 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? probability down 15.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? shows a divergence pattern at 81% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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