Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship?
Probability
51¢
1h
+9.5pp
24h
-14.0pp
24h Vol
$316.99
Liquidity
$209.40
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 14pp over 24h
Now 51¢; +9.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 34.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 76.6h
- 19:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-14.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by May 16, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:21:35 GMT, YES is priced at 51% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -14.0pp in the last 24 hours, +9.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$316.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $316.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $209.40. Spread between best bid and best ask: 34.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
