Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?
Probability
83¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$2.00
Liquidity
$145.48
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryAnnual ReportTypeCompany filingConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 83¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $145 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryAnnual ReportTypeCompany filingConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary company filing and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Annual Report
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary company filing and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Apr 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 7686.3h
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 83¢.
Biggest hourly move: -42.5pp at Jun 10, 17:00 UTC (to 49¢).
Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
- 05:00 · +39.0pp → 88¢
- 02:00 · +38.0pp → 88¢
- Jun 11, 04:00 UTC · -37.0pp → 54¢
- Jun 10, 17:00 UTC · -42.5pp → 49¢
- Jun 10, 15:00 UTC · -38.0pp → 53¢
- Jun 10, 14:00 UTC · -41.0pp → 50¢
- Jun 9, 21:00 UTC · -37.5pp → 54¢
- Jun 9, 19:00 UTC · -39.5pp → 52¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
amazonReason
Question text contains "amazon" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 17:41:43 GMT, YES is priced at 83% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -8.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 30, 2027 (2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $145.48. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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