SportsExpires May 5, 2026

Stefano Travaglia vs. Jesper de Jong: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Probability

69¢

1h

+18.0pp

24h

+27.0pp

24h Vol

$263.10

Liquidity

$684.95

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 00:00Apr 28, 2026, 14:30
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 27pp over 24h

    Now 69¢; +18.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 63.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  • 04
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 161.5h

    LOW
  • 14:30Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+27.0pp over the last 24h, now 69¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefano Travaglia and Jesper de Jong in the Cagliari, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 5, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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