Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Aguilar
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$257.16
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 194h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 61.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 193.9h
- 07:06SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 194h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Tsitsipas” if Stefanos Tsitsipas wins the first set. It will resolve to “Aguilar” if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (61.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.