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OtherExpires Apr 28, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

Probability

57¢

1h

+6.5pp

24h

+36.5pp

24h Vol

$462.2K

Liquidity

$38.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 22:00Apr 24, 2026, 19:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 76.1h

    LOW
  • 19:52Signal

    Signal · Momentum up

    Probability moved up 36.5pp in 24h with 12.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 19:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 76h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 19:50Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -24.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -34.5pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -33.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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