US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
Probability
57¢
1h
+6.5pp
24h
+36.5pp
24h Vol
$462.2K
Liquidity
$38.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 76.1h
- 19:52SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 36.5pp in 24h with 12.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 19:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 76h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 19:50PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 57¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 66¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 58¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 60¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 45¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 12¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- BUYUP4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYUP4m ago
- BUYUP4m ago
- BUYHAMISH STEWART4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYUP4m ago
- SELLOVER4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- SELLNO4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- n/a
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Alerts
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