Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-04-26?
Probability
14¢
1h
-3.5pp
24h
-15.5pp
24h Vol
$11.08
Liquidity
$301.40
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 31h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 31h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 31 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 30.6h
- 14:37SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 31h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 13¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 28¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 29¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 28¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 28¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 29¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 26, 2026 If CD Real Tomayapo wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://lfpb.com.bo/News consensus
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).