UnclassifiedExpires Apr 25, 2026

Fabio Balde: Anytime Goalscorer

Probability

1h

-7.5pp

24h

-34.0pp

24h Vol

$134.93

Liquidity

$267.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 09:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  • 1

    Down 34pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -7.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 34.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

  • 5

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 21:06Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 34.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 21:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:30Resolve

    Market resolved 5h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

-17.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -43.5pp at 17:00 (to 8¢).

Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 21:00 · -22.9pp → 0¢
  • 20:00 · -15.5pp → 8¢
  • 19:00 · -42.4pp → 8¢
  • 17:00 · -43.5pp → 8¢
  • 16:00 · -21.0pp → 3¢
  • 15:00 · +25.0pp → 49¢
  • 13:00 · -6.0pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · -6.0pp → 18¢
  • 10:00 · -6.0pp → 18¢
  • 09:00 · +11.5pp → 35¢
  • 08:00 · -32.0pp → 18¢
  • 06:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
  • 05:00 · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 03:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
  • 02:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
  • 00:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
  • 22:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 1d ago · -35.0pp → 15¢
  • 1d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 1d ago · -33.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 36¢
  • 1d ago · -30.5pp → 20¢
  • 1d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 1d ago · -31.0pp → 19¢
  • 2d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 2d ago · -31.0pp → 19¢
  • 2d ago · -14.0pp → 35¢
  • 2d ago · -13.0pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · -12.5pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · -13.0pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · -12.5pp → 38¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between Hamburger SV and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabio Balde is credited with a goal in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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