Loading shell…
OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 25, 2026

Exact Score: 1. FSV Mainz 05 0 - 2 FC Bayern München?

Probability

1h

-48.9pp

24h

-7.4pp

24h Vol

$169.97

Liquidity

$2.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-9.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:48
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -48.9pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 14:48Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:30Resolve

    Market resolved 1h ago

    HIGH
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München, scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München match originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).