ChatGPT outage on August 8, 2026?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 35h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
55% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
55% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Aug 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Aug 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 35h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 35 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Aug 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Aug 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task ChatGPT outage on August 8, 2026? State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief ChatGPT outage on August 8, 2026? State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 8, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 35.4h
- 12:35SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 35h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 14¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 7, 2026?
AI · Vol $47.89
- 6¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 9, 2026?
AI · Vol $340.58
- 14¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 10, 2026?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 19¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 11, 2026?
AI · Vol $20.00
- 14¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 12, 2026?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 13¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 13, 2026?
AI · Vol $68.05
- 13¢0.0
ChatGPT outage on August 14, 2026?
AI · Vol $22.94
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' on the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
chatgptReason
Question text contains "chatgpt" — matched the AI keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "ChatGPT outage on August 8, 2026?"?
As of Fri, 07 Aug 2026 12:35:11 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 8, 2026 (2026-08-08T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.