Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 27?
Probability
0¢
1h
-11.9pp
24h
-57.0pp
24h Vol
$6.8K
Liquidity
$60.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 01Price move
Down 57pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -11.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $6.8k traded against $60.2k of visible liquidity (0.11× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 57.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 05Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:13SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 57.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 20:13SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 0h ago
Price movement
-58.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -43.5pp at 20:13 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 13 hourly moves
- 20:13 · -43.5pp → 0¢
- 19:00 · -14.0pp → 18¢
- 16:00 · -25.5pp → 22¢
- 14:00 · -8.0pp → 39¢
- 12:00 · +7.5pp → 55¢
- 04:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 02:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 01:00 · +14.5pp → 65¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on April 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on April 27, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.