UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 5, 2026

T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Rwanda vs Nepal - Toss Match Double Nepal Winner

Probability

51¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$266.93

Liquidity

$2.57

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 22:00Apr 28, 2026, 12:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 51¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 169h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 99.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  • 04
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 169.2h

    LOW
  • 12:45Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 169h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Rwanda and Nepal scheduled for 2026-04-28 in T20 Challenge Trophy, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Rwanda will be considered correct if Rwanda is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Nepal will be considered correct if Nepal is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to Neither. DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to Neither. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to Neither. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 5, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
espncricinfo.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (99.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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