DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$480.19
Liquidity
$4.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Justice recently openedTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Justice recently openedTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1347.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7- 83¢+18.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Macro · Vol $360.7K
- 2¢-1.4
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $323.8K
- 7¢+1.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
Macro · Vol $302.7K
- 2¢+0.3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
Macro · Vol $225.6K
- 46¢+5.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Macro · Vol $184.7K
- 30¢+9.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
Macro · Vol $183.1K
Market Description
The United States Department of Justice recently opened, and later dropped, a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his handling of renovations to the Federal Reserve buildings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice reopens this criminal investigation of Powell, or opens a new criminal investigation of Powell, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell, this will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. An official announcement from the United States Department of Justice that the investigation has been reopened, or that a new investigation against Powell has been opened, will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Statements or reports that the Department of Justice is considering allegations or potential investigative action against Powell will not qualify, unless they explicitly indicate that a criminal investigation into Powell has been reopened or opened. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Department of Justice, including any relevant United States Attorney’s Office; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.