Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5
Probability
100¢
1h
+53.4pp
24h
+79.0pp
24h Vol
$8.4K
Liquidity
$59.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+69.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Up 79pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +53.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $8.4k traded against $59.0k of visible liquidity (0.14× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 3
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 79.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 4
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 0h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 5
Expiry in 0h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 0.1h
- 13:51SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 79.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:51SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 0h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:51PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 79.5pp
to 100¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 14¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 20¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 20¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Middlesbrough FC and Watford FC, scheduled for April 25 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Middlesbrough FC and Watford FC combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on efl.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- https://www.efl.com/News consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).