Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
48¢
1h
+11.0pp
24h
+36.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$25.14
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 36pp over 24h
Now 48¢; +11.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 365h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 88.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 364.8h
- 15:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 365h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 33¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 45¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 11¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 13¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.5pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.5pp
to 11¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 38¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.0pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 29¢+1.5pp
Will Pierre Gasly achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 34¢-6.5pp
Will Fernando Alonso achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 36¢-6.0pp
Will Alexander Albon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 36¢-6.0pp
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 44¢+16.0pp
Will Sergio Perez achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 32¢+14.5pp
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 41¢-2.5pp
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 53¢+3.0pp
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $47.96
- 0¢-42.4pp
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings
Sports · Vol $3.1M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 52¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $865.3K
- 4¢+0.3pp
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $799.6K
- 100¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $787.7K
Market Description
This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially credited with the fastest lap in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The fastest lap must be set during the race itself; times from practice sessions, qualifying, or any other sessions are not considered. If no driver completes a lap during the race (e.g., due to a red flag ending the race prematurely), this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (88.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.