SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

Probability

14¢

1h

-17.0pp

24h

-20.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$786.92

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 13:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 20pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -17.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 361h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 25.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 361.3h

    LOW
  • 18:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 361h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-26.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: -41.0pp at 01:00 (to 9¢).

Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:43 · -33.0pp → 13¢
  • 17:00 · -14.0pp → 32¢
  • 15:00 · -14.0pp → 33¢
  • 14:00 · -9.5pp → 38¢
  • 12:00 · -9.0pp → 38¢
  • 11:00 · -21.0pp → 27¢
  • 09:00 · -23.5pp → 26¢
  • 08:00 · -41.0pp → 9¢
  • 06:00 · -40.5pp → 9¢
  • 05:00 · -21.5pp → 25¢
  • 03:00 · -10.0pp → 34¢
  • 01:00 · -41.0pp → 9¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMiami Grand Prix: Driver Fastest Lap
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially credited with the fastest lap in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The fastest lap must be set during the race itself; times from practice sessions, qualifying, or any other sessions are not considered. If no driver completes a lap during the race (e.g., due to a red flag ending the race prematurely), this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (25.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket