First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$17.49
Liquidity
$26.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 2, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 364.3h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 100¢+10.8
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Politics · Vol $4.3M
- 7¢-0.1
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Politics · Vol $1.8M
- 11¢+8.8
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Politics · Vol $486.4K
- 1¢-0.1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $309.4K
- 69¢+37.0
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Politics · Vol $307.5K
- 1¢0.0
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $304.5K
Market Description
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
mayoral electionReason
Mayoral / city-election markets are Politics. Also guards against the esports LEC token inside 'election'.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?"?
As of Sun, 17 May 2026 19:44:34 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$17.49 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.