Loading shell…
OtherExpires Apr 25, 2026

Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)

Probability

29¢

1h

+19.7pp

24h

+13.2pp

24h Vol

$418.79

Liquidity

$5.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:48
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 13pp over 24h

    Now 29¢; +19.7pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 7.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 14:48Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Resolve

    Market resolved 2h ago

    HIGH
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for April 25 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Olympique Lyonnais" if Olympique Lyonnais win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "AJ Auxerre". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligue1.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.ligue1.com/News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (7.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).