OtherExpires May 2, 2026

Spread: Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC (-2.5)

Probability

27¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$21.64

Liquidity

$160.80

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 168h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 41.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 168.5h

    LOW
  • 17:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 168h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.5pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.5pp at 2d ago (to 34¢).

Show all 13 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 15:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 14:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 12:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 11:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 09:00 · -6.5pp → 27¢
  • 21:00 · +9.5pp → 43¢
  • 1d ago · +7.5pp → 41¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 33¢
  • 2d ago · -12.5pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 34¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Ligue 2 game, scheduled for May 2 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC" if Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ES Troyes AC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligue2.fr. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
official statisticsOfficial statistics
ligue2.fr
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (41.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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