Lalit Modi to announce new MMA league by the end of 2026?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-36.0pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$3.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 36pp over 24h
Now 11¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 16¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6002.3h
Price movement
-38.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Biggest hourly move: -40.0pp at 14:00 (to 11¢).
Show 8 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -38.0pp → 11¢
- 20:00 · -38.5pp → 11¢
- 19:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
- 17:00 · -39.5pp → 11¢
- 15:00 · -39.5pp → 11¢
- 14:00 · -40.0pp → 11¢
- 12:00 · -24.5pp → 26¢
- 10:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lalit Modi officially announces the launch of a new mixed martial arts league by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official qualifying public announcement during 2026 will count for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the new league launches. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lalit Modi; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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