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OtherExpires Apr 26, 2026

Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$146.11

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  3. 3

    Expiry in 32h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 32 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 32.2h

    HIGH
  • 14:50Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -38.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -39.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -39.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -39.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -39.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -38.5pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -29.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -29.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -29.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -29.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Leviatan Esports and Vivo Keyd Stars each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://gol.gg/esports/homeNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.