Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on April 25?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$343.94
Liquidity
$596.17
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $596 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 23:25SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 11h ago
Price movement
-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.4pp at 17:00 (to 0¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 23:24 · -8.9pp → 0¢
- 22:00 · -13.5pp → 0¢
- 21:00 · -18.4pp → 0¢
- 20:00 · -20.0pp → 0¢
- 19:00 · -19.4pp → 0¢
- 17:00 · -25.4pp → 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.