Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 14¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $24.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.