Neutrl FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Probability
28¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$171.14
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14767h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 38.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14767.0h
- 22:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14767h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+9.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: +23.0pp at 3d ago (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -18.0pp → 23¢
- 02:00 · -15.5pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -19.5pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -23.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 20¢
- 3d ago · +23.0pp → 42¢
- 4d ago · +18.0pp → 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Neutrl's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Neutrl (https://x.com/Neutrl) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (38.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.