No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 15¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1234h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.