Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 11¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 14.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.