OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 2, 2026

Will Castres Olympique win?

Probability

1h

-49.9pp

24h

-21.4pp

24h Vol

$90.84

Liquidity

$30.43

Probability (last 7 days)

-49.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -49.9pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $30 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 165.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-22.9pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -33.9pp at 17:00 (to 1¢).

Show all 59 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -33.9pp → 1¢
  • 16:00 · +16.0pp → 51¢
  • 15:00 · +14.0pp → 49¢
  • 11:00 · -3.5pp → 31¢
  • 06:00 · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 05:00 · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 03:00 · -4.0pp → 31¢
  • 02:00 · -13.0pp → 22¢
  • 00:00 · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 22:00 · -12.5pp → 23¢
  • 20:00 · -12.5pp → 23¢
  • 18:00 · -12.0pp → 24¢
  • 1d ago · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · -13.5pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · -12.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · -12.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · -12.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · -25.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · -25.5pp → 23¢
  • 1d ago · -26.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -26.5pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.5pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -26.5pp → 24¢
  • 2d ago · -26.0pp → 24¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -27.0pp → 23¢
  • 2d ago · -26.0pp → 24¢
  • 2d ago · -26.0pp → 24¢
  • 2d ago · -24.0pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · -13.0pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · -23.5pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · -23.5pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · -16.0pp → 34¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -16.0pp → 34¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -16.0pp → 34¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -15.0pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 35¢
  • 3d ago · -14.5pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 3d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 4d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 4d ago · -14.0pp → 36¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Castres Olympique wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.