Will the match end in a draw?
Probability
7¢
1h
+3.8pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$481.57
Liquidity
$331.02
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 169h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 9.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 169.4h
- 13:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 169h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 4¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 4¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 4¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 5¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 4¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 4¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 4¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.lnr.fr/top-14
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).