SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T
Probability
13¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$158.69
Liquidity
$37.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14745h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14745.1h
- 14:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14745h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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