SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$253.10
Liquidity
$5.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14757.0h
- 03:02SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14757h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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