Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
Probability
52¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-27.5pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$21.4K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 28pp over 24h
Now 52¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $21.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 57¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1424.8h
Price movement
-27.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: +70.5pp at 1d ago (to 80¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -32.5pp → 51¢
- 04:00 · +42.0pp → 80¢
- 03:00 · +38.5pp → 80¢
- 01:00 · +29.5pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +56.5pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +32.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +70.5pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +38.0pp → 80¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
On April 6, 2026, the United States Supreme Court threw out an appellate ruling that had upheld Steve Bannon’s 2022 conviction on Contempt of Congress charges (see: https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-capitol-riot-bannon-trump-4a4cf324096fc1bfed204d42b54d191e). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bannon’s 2022 Contempt of Congress conviction is dismissed, overturned, vacated, or otherwise reversed by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying reversal requires that a United States court or other competent legal authority formally nullify the conviction itself. The vacating of appellate rulings, procedural actions toward reconsideration, or other changes which do not themselves result in the nullification of the conviction, will not alone count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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