Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$251.27
Liquidity
$109.38
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $109 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 14¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 144.1h
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 10¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 10¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 9¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 9¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 8¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 9¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 10¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 20¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 24¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 3¢-3.1pp
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $7.50
- 1¢-8.6pp
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $15.00
- 0¢+0.3pp
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $148.64
- 0¢-0.4pp
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $202.81
- 28¢-1.5pp
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $35.35
- 14¢-9.5pp
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $108.77
- 32¢+19.5pp
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $37.88
- 4¢-6.3pp
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Other · Vol $262.91
- 85¢+26.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.7M
- 2¢-0.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 28¢-30.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/tedcruzAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).