Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+13.0pp
24h Vol
$61.54
Liquidity
$92.77
Probability (last 7 days)
+19.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 32¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 43.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1567.7h
- 16:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 32¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 32¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 33¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 37¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 47¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 44¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 40¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 20¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.8M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 1¢-1.2pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+35.4pp
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson announces that he will run for any public office in the United States by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any public office refers to any elected government office in the United States, including at the federal, local, or state level. The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Tucker Carlson; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (43.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).