Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
52¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$20.29
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 16.7h
- 11:20SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 17h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jafel Filho and Cody Durden at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).