Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
21¢
1h
-30.0pp
24h
-30.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$900.06
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 30pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -30.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 39.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 10h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 9.9h
- 18:03SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-30.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Biggest hourly move: -36.0pp at 20:00 (to 14¢).
Show all 15 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:00 · -30.0pp → 21¢
- 15:00 · -31.5pp → 19¢
- 14:00 · -31.5pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · -31.5pp → 19¢
- 11:00 · -31.5pp → 19¢
- 09:00 · -30.5pp → 20¢
- 08:00 · -31.0pp → 20¢
- 06:00 · -31.0pp → 20¢
- 05:00 · -31.0pp → 20¢
- 03:00 · -29.0pp → 22¢
- 02:00 · -29.5pp → 21¢
- 00:00 · -29.0pp → 22¢
- 23:00 · -29.0pp → 22¢
- 21:00 · -28.0pp → 23¢
- 20:00 · -36.0pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Max Griffin and Victor Valenzuela at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.