Will Max Griffin win by KO or TKO?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-32.5pp
24h Vol
$14.43
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 33pp over 24h
Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 16h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 16h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 15.6h
- 12:24SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 16h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 18¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 18¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 18¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 18¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 18¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 25¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 25¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 25¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 25¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Griffin defeats Victor Valenzuela at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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