Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
56¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$153.86
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 182h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 80.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 182.3h
- 13:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 182h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:40PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 56¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 56¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 56¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vince Morales and Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (80.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.